With the fortunes of the global economy now looking more uncertain than before and the outcome of Cuba's broad internal debate on economic policy still unknown, it is not easy to forecast the Cuban economy in the next five years. In this context, the Economist Intelligence Unit's annual publication, Country Forecast: Cuba, is hedged with more provisos than usual. However, the exercise provides a basis for assessing the likelihood of a set of different scenarios, and their impact on the forecast. This article sets out and explains the central scenario, then considers some alternatives. read articule complete |
